It's the Economy!

I appreciated today’s economic assessment by our governor and thought I would add what I learned yesterday in a Zoom call with Utah business leaders. Much of this information came from Rep. Robert Spendlove, who is an economist:

- Traditionally, a negative GDP for two quarters in a row indicates we are in a recession. There are some unusual factors in this economy, however, making interpretation difficult. (Things like residual stimulus money and strong job growth.) The National Bureau of Economic Data is the organization that 'calls' the recession.

- Consumer sentiment is at its lowest level in >50 years. More than 70% of people believe we are already in a recession, but inflation and recession are not synonymous. We definitely have inflation!!!

- All economic data is backward looking, but we look to economists to predict the future based upon the past. [Harry Truman once asked for a one-armed economist, because every economist he talked to would say "on the one hand...but on the other hand..."]

- Inflation is called the most regressive tax, because the poor have fewer resources to weather peaks and valleys. Most low income people ran out of stimulus money long ago and are now contending with inflation head-on.

*** My take - I agree with Gov. Cox that the federal government should be doing everything it can to steady the economy. A couple of slips of tongue by White House officials indicate that what we are going through right now (inflation) is necessary for some unspecified future benefit. We should set politics aside and return to an all-of-the-above approach on energy. As someone said in a recent caucus meeting, we seem to have shot the horse (decarbonization now, at all costs) before the motorcar had been invented.